Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 60,388
2 South Dakota 54,088
3 Wisconsin 42,074
4 Iowa 42,058
5 Mississippi 40,611
6 Louisiana 40,439
7 Alabama 39,748
8 Tennessee 38,112
9 Florida 37,809
10 Arkansas 37,656
11 Nebraska 37,546
12 Idaho 37,071
13 Utah 36,714
14 Georgia 35,532
15 South Carolina 34,749
16 Arizona 34,112
17 Illinois 34,034
18 Texas 33,281
19 Nevada 33,194
20 Rhode Island 32,208
21 Montana 32,108
22 Missouri 31,916
23 Oklahoma 31,639
24 Kansas 31,103
25 Indiana 27,875
26 New Jersey 27,334
27 Minnesota 27,248
28 North Carolina 26,551
29 New York 26,530
30 Delaware 25,992
31 Kentucky 25,027
32 District of Columbia 24,708
33 Wyoming 24,478
34 Maryland 24,393
35 California 23,894
36 Massachusetts 23,293
37 Alaska 23,167
38 New Mexico 22,941
39 Virginia 21,488
40 Puerto Rico 21,345
41 Connecticut 20,715
42 Michigan 20,440
43 Colorado 19,591
44 Ohio 18,984
45 Pennsylvania 16,969
46 Washington 15,074
47 West Virginia 14,080
48 Oregon 10,901
49 Hawaii 10,847
50 New Hampshire 8,325
51 Maine 5,057
52 Vermont 3,556

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 1,544
2 South Dakota 1,240
3 Wisconsin 737
4 Montana 724
5 Iowa 710
6 Wyoming 656
7 Illinois 556
8 Alaska 521
9 Nebraska 514
10 Utah 496
11 Minnesota 482
12 Indiana 460
13 Colorado 456
14 Kansas 439
15 Missouri 438
16 Rhode Island 392
17 Idaho 386
18 Michigan 359
19 New Mexico 348
20 Kentucky 313
21 Oklahoma 311
22 Arkansas 305
23 Alabama 298
24 Ohio 260
25 Puerto Rico 253
26 Connecticut 247
27 Tennessee 241
28 Nevada 238
29 West Virginia 231
30 Texas 227
31 Georgia 223
32 South Carolina 215
33 North Carolina 198
34 Arizona 192
35 Delaware 191
36 Florida 183
37 Pennsylvania 173
38 Mississippi 171
39 New Jersey 167
40 Massachusetts 164
41 Maryland 147
42 Virginia 147
43 District of Columbia 138
44 Washington 126
45 Oregon 125
46 New Hampshire 106
47 California 103
48 New York 101
49 Louisiana 96
50 Maine 56
51 Hawaii 50
52 Vermont 34

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,841
2 New York 1,705
3 Massachusetts 1,454
4 Connecticut 1,297
5 Louisiana 1,276
6 Rhode Island 1,142
7 Mississippi 1,124
8 District of Columbia 916
9 Arizona 821
10 Illinois 798
11 Florida 783
12 Michigan 772
13 South Carolina 766
14 Georgia 735
15 Delaware 729
16 North Dakota 715
17 Pennsylvania 694
18 Maryland 687
19 Arkansas 657
20 Indiana 652
21 Texas 642
22 Alabama 606
23 Nevada 579
24 Iowa 556
25 Missouri 505
26 South Dakota 495
27 New Mexico 494
28 Tennessee 490
29 Ohio 456
30 Minnesota 450
31 California 447
32 Virginia 428
33 North Carolina 420
34 Colorado 402
35 Wisconsin 363
36 Montana 362
37 Kansas 359
38 Idaho 358
39 New Hampshire 355
40 Kentucky 350
41 Oklahoma 342
42 Nebraska 340
43 Washington 326
44 Puerto Rico 262
45 West Virginia 255
46 Utah 191
47 Oregon 164
48 Hawaii 153
49 Wyoming 150
50 Maine 110
51 Alaska 107
52 Vermont 92

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 North Dakota 12
2 Arkansas 9
3 South Dakota 8
4 Indiana 5
5 Montana 5
6 Iowa 4
7 Missouri 4
8 New Mexico 4
9 Wisconsin 4
10 South Carolina 3
11 Alabama 2
12 Arizona 2
13 Delaware 2
14 Idaho 2
15 Illinois 2
16 Massachusetts 2
17 Minnesota 2
18 Mississippi 2
19 Nebraska 2
20 Oklahoma 2
21 Rhode Island 2
22 Alaska 1
23 Colorado 1
24 Connecticut 1
25 Florida 1
26 Georgia 1
27 Kansas 1
28 Kentucky 1
29 Louisiana 1
30 Michigan 1
31 North Carolina 1
32 Ohio 1
33 Oregon 1
34 Puerto Rico 1
35 Tennessee 1
36 Texas 1
37 Utah 1
38 West Virginia 1
39 California 0
40 District of Columbia 0
41 Hawaii 0
42 Maine 0
43 Maryland 0
44 Nevada 0
45 New Hampshire 0
46 New Jersey 0
47 New York 0
48 Pennsylvania 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Virginia 0
51 Washington 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Lincoln Arkansas 179,515 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 167,599 2 99
Trousdale Tennessee 159,695 3 99
Lafayette Florida 151,864 4 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 148,094 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 50,569 327 89
Richland South Carolina 42,611 538 82
York South Carolina 25,077 1608 48
Orange California 19,606 2065 34
Pierce Washington 13,244 2544 19

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Jerauld South Dakota 6,458 1 99
Hancock Georgia 5,321 2 99
Emporia city Virginia 5,238 3 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 4 99
Galax city Virginia 4,727 5 99
Richland South Carolina 661 894 71
Davidson Tennessee 509 1213 61
Orange California 467 1324 57
York South Carolina 381 1573 49
Pierce Washington 286 1859 40

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons